大船一路下滑 中小型船走升

　　節(jié)后中國(guó)進(jìn)口干散貨運(yùn)輸市場(chǎng)呈現(xiàn)“大船大跌，中小船小升”走勢(shì)，綜合指數(shù)、運(yùn)價(jià)指數(shù)和租金指數(shù)延續(xù)上周下滑趨勢(shì)，但跌幅收窄。2月9日，上海航運(yùn)交易所發(fā)布的中國(guó)進(jìn)口干散貨綜合指數(shù)（CDFI）為518.79點(diǎn)，運(yùn)價(jià)指數(shù)為554.69點(diǎn)，租金指數(shù)為464.95點(diǎn)，分別較上周五下跌4.3%，2.6%和7.1%。

　　海岬型船市場(chǎng)

　　本周海岬型船市場(chǎng)量?jī)r(jià)齊跌，租金跌幅較上周明顯放大。中國(guó)北方至澳大利亞往返航線航次期租成交稀少，日租金從上周五6400美元加速回落至4500美元左右。周四，上海航運(yùn)交易所發(fā)布的中國(guó)北方至澳大利亞往返航線TCT日租金為4550美元，較上周五大跌28.3%。近期西澳大利亞港口遭遇臺(tái)風(fēng)，港口被迫關(guān)閉，且礦商多數(shù)不在市場(chǎng)，太平洋市場(chǎng)船運(yùn)成交低迷，運(yùn)價(jià)一路探底。澳大利亞至中國(guó)的鐵礦石航線成交運(yùn)價(jià)較上周跌去近50美分，2月中下旬的受載期，西澳大利亞至青島航線成交價(jià)為4.50美元/噸。周四，澳大利亞丹皮爾至青島航線運(yùn)價(jià)為4.430美元/噸，較上周五下跌9.1%。大西洋市場(chǎng)，前半周太平洋大批空放運(yùn)力集結(jié)大西洋市場(chǎng)，礦商出貨較少，運(yùn)價(jià)跌破10美元/噸大關(guān)。后半周租家集中進(jìn)場(chǎng)拿船，市場(chǎng)成交陸續(xù)放出，成交運(yùn)價(jià)明顯反彈。9日成交記錄顯示，巴西圖巴朗至青島航線，2月受載期，成交價(jià)為10.75美元/噸,3月受載期10.90美元/噸。南非薩爾達(dá)尼亞至青島航線，2月底受載期，成交價(jià)為7.25美元/噸,3月上旬受載期7.50美元/噸。周四，巴西圖巴朗至青島航線運(yùn)價(jià)為10.617美元/噸，較上周五下跌6.2%；南非薩爾達(dá)尼亞至青島航線運(yùn)價(jià)為7.25美元/噸，較上周五下跌12.5%。

　　巴拿馬型船市場(chǎng)

　　巴拿馬型船市場(chǎng)租金、運(yùn)價(jià)延續(xù)上周反彈走勢(shì)。節(jié)后內(nèi)貿(mào)市場(chǎng)行情持續(xù)向好，南美糧食船運(yùn)預(yù)期高漲，太平洋空放至南美市場(chǎng)運(yùn)力增多，印尼煤炭出貨不暢、價(jià)格上漲導(dǎo)致澳大利亞煤炭詢盤增多，太平洋市場(chǎng)租金和運(yùn)價(jià)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                單邊上行。8日成交記錄顯示，8.3萬(wàn)載重噸船，2月7日新加坡交船，經(jīng)西澳，新加坡-日本還船，成交日租金為8500美元。周四，中國(guó)南方經(jīng)東澳大利亞至中國(guó)往返航線TCT日租金為5688美元，較上周五上漲8.0%。印尼薩馬林達(dá)至中國(guó)廣州航線運(yùn)價(jià)為4.541美元/噸，較上周五上漲6.0%。大西洋市場(chǎng)，美灣糧食船運(yùn)難覓蹤跡，南美天氣狀況良好，新豆收割進(jìn)度快于去年，市場(chǎng)大豆出貨提前，船運(yùn)成交穩(wěn)定，運(yùn)價(jià)緩步上行。9日成交記錄顯示，8.2萬(wàn)載重噸船，受載期2月15-25日，南美東海岸交船，新加坡-日本還船，成交日租金為9200美元/天，外加42萬(wàn)美元空放補(bǔ)貼。周四，巴西桑托斯至中國(guó)北方港口糧食航線運(yùn)價(jià)為24.217美元/噸，較上周五上漲2.5%。據(jù)悉，國(guó)際谷物理事會(huì)上調(diào)巴西大豆產(chǎn)量和出口量預(yù)期：2017/18年度（2月到次年1月）大豆產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)為1.025億噸，上年為9540萬(wàn)噸；大豆出口預(yù)計(jì)為5730萬(wàn)噸，上年為5160萬(wàn)噸。

　　超靈便型船市場(chǎng)

　　本周超靈便型船市場(chǎng)止跌回升。太平洋市場(chǎng)，節(jié)后鋼材出口、鎳礦進(jìn)口增加，加之巴拿馬型船市場(chǎng)好轉(zhuǎn)提振市場(chǎng)活躍度，租金、運(yùn)價(jià)雙雙上行。周四，中國(guó)南方至印尼往返航線TCT日租金為4522美元，較上周五上漲8.3%；印尼塔巴尼奧至中國(guó)廣州航線煤炭運(yùn)價(jià)為5.052美元/噸，較上周五上漲4.8%；菲律賓蘇里高至中國(guó)日照航線鎳礦運(yùn)價(jià)為5.308美元/噸，較上周五上漲4.7%。2月4日，菲律賓因鎳礦環(huán)保政策要求關(guān)停和暫停運(yùn)營(yíng)20家鎳礦山，預(yù)計(jì)將打亂該國(guó)雨季結(jié)束后的鎳礦出口節(jié)奏。